At the same time Uganda reported its first COVID-19 case in March 2020 with an immediate nationwide lockdown being imposed. As such the CPD fails to address the double burden of the impact of COVID-19 and the recent war in Ukraine having unprecedented consequences for the world economy, including in Uganda.
The World Bank June 2021 Uganda Economic Update underlines that the COVID-19 shock caused a sharp contraction of the economy to its slowest pace in three decades with household incomes falling as a result of job loss, and the urban informal sector being hit the hardest. The country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 1.1 percent in 2020. The war in Ukraine and resulting economic sanctions affected Uganda through commodity prices, which were already on the rise. Petrol inflation has been increasing since March 2021 and as of January 2022, the petrol inflation increased sharply, now standing at 45.9% as of June 2022. The price of consumer goods, such as maize, tomatoes, cooking oil, also increased considerably with some of them seeing up to 10% increase. Such economic environment will inevitably impact recovery, with the WB projecting that the real GDP growth could fall below the expected recovery path, to an average 4.7 percent in FY22. With lower consumption growth due to reduced remittances, limited credit, and job losses, poverty increased from 27.5 to 32.7 percent after the first lockdown in 2020. The impact of COVID-19 had also devastating social dimensions. An early 2022 study assessing the impact of COVID-19 on young people concluded that youth, especially females, suffered from multiple deprivations, including lack of access to medical care; increased food insecurity as a result of job loss; and an increase in domestic violence and psychological stress was observed. Children were deprived from education (the longest period of closure of school in the world), resulting in increased teenage pregnancies, delinquency, drug abuse and mental health problems. The application of the nationwide lockdown increased vulnerabilities as it was n